Britain to hold referendum on leaving the EU

[Sydneyfan]

Anyone following Brexit developments? Vote will take place on June 23 this year. The momentum between the Leave and Stay camps seems to change daily, but the latest polls show a fairly close contest. Political Betting.com is a great source for political nerds.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/ind...level-pegging/

[Sydneyfan]

Thought this was an interesting article comparing the surge in support for Brexit with the same kind of working/middle class anger that is propelling the rise of Trump in the US.

These arguments all belong to the elite. It's an experience of Europe that simply doesn't ring true to the struggling classes. It's hard to value the opportunity to up sticks for the continent when it's not one that applies to you. Not everyone surveys Europe and sees a field of dreams.
Millions are more likely to see a source of competition, for jobs, for houses, for everything. That's why the ugly side of this, centred on the influx of Eastern European migrants, is never far from the surface of this debate. It's not cogent – Britain's terrible housing crisis is a familiar story of undersupply and hyperactive investors, not swooping Poles – but it's a powerful enough image to stick.
The themes here are closer to Trump than might immediately appear. The incessant media focus on Trump's outrages masks the fact that he's also running a seriously protectionist campaign: ironically suspicious of free trade and protective of an American underclass for whom the triumphs of capitalism seem only to flow elsewhere. It's not arguing that the system never works. It's that it always works for the same people: the establishment who write the laws for the benefits of their friends and themselves. If that's not you, chances are you feel thoroughly disempowered, whether you live in the world's most powerful nation or not.
So, "Make America Great Again". Or to cast it in Brexit language, reclaim Britain's sovereignty, even freedom. In each case, it's really a promise of power and control. Even if those promises are completely overblown and doomed to fail (and I think they are) it's hard to deny their attraction.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/worlds...#ixzz43CsXkFBU

[Sydneyfan]

New poll:







http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage...y-tactics.html

[Sydneyfan]

As the campaign reaches the pointy end, LEAVE appears to taking the lead. If normal polling wisdom hold true, the Leave campaign should also have an advantage on polling day given that citizens against the status quo/for change generally have a greater incentive to actually turn up and vote.

Britain's "Leave" campaign opened up a 7-point lead over "Remain" ahead of a referendum on membership of the European Union an opinion poll showed late Monday, while the nation's biggest-selling newspaper urged readers to vote to quit the bloc.

The result of the June 23 referendum will have far-reaching consequences for politics, the economy, defense, migration and diplomacy in Britain and elsewhere.

Recent polls are suggesting that momentum has swung towards the "Leave" camp, or a so called Brexit, unsettling investors. "Leave" in recent days has focused its campaign on the issue of immigration.

According to the YouGov poll for The Times, "Leave" held 46 percent support compared with 39 percent support for "Remain." Undecided voters were 11 percent, while 4 percent won't vote.

Last Monday The Times/YouGov had reported a 1 percent lead for the "Remain" campaign.

In another, though not unexpected, boost for "Leave," media tycoon Rupert Murdoch's Sun newspaper called on its readers to vote to quit the 28-member EU.

"The Sun urges everyone to vote Leave. We must set ourselves free from dictatorial Brussels," said the tabloid, which has a circulation of 1.7 million.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-br...-idUSKCN0YZ2FY

[roscoe]

Jesus, how depressing. So, out of the EU, Cameron to be replaced by Boris Johnson as Prime Minister & no doubt the SNP will be agitating for another independence referendum if there's a Scottish majority for remain.

All because a bunch of affluent white folks don't like foreigners. We're fucked.

[Sydneyfan]

Originally Posted by roscoe

Jesus, how depressing. So, out of the EU, Cameron to be replaced by Boris Johnson as Prime Minister & no doubt the SNP will be agitating for another independence referendum if there's a Scottish majority for remain.

All because a bunch of affluent white folks don't like foreigners. We're fucked.

Well, the trend is certainly towards Leave at the moment. But the bookies are still pretty firmly backing Remain, and the punters don't get this stuff wrong too often.

[roscoe]

I hope you're right Syd. A lot of yahoos are convinved the fix is in & that remain will edge it. But then, they also think the world is ruled by a secret coucil of Jewish reptile aliens.

Osborne is certainly bringing the hammer down with these tax hike warnings. If anything swings it for remain, it might be that.

Labour's inabilty to articulate their position or even capitalise on the Tories tearing each other to shreds is a goddamn disgrace. Corbyn should be tarred & feathered in public.

[Sydneyfan]

Originally Posted by roscoe

A lot of yahoos are convinved the fix is in & that remain will edge it. But then, they also think the world is ruled by a secret coucil of Jewish reptile aliens.

David Icke has so much to answer for.

Labour's inabilty to articulate their position or even capitalise on the Tories tearing each other to shreds is a goddamn disgrace. Corbyn should be tarred & feathered in public.

I gather Corbyn is not exactly an EU enthusiast, so I guess his heart isn't really in it. But as you say, as the Labour leader he should be capitalising on the Tory divide. A lot of Corbyn supporters love the fact that he's not like most mainstream politicians. That's all good and noble etc, except for the fact that political leaders need to act politically, at least occasionally. Corbyn seems to prefer ideological purity over actually giving his party a chance at governing.

[Izzy Eviel]

The really sad thing is people are voting Leave because they think Britain will magically be a world power on its own and that'll stop immigration. I have heard numerous Leave people openly comment that they can't wait for africans and asians to leave the UK on the 24th.

One side is peddling facts and evidence, and the other is peddling patriotic bullshit.

[Sydneyfan]

The big day is coming up Britain.......

Had a quick scan of the British papers earlier this morning, and it all looks very, very close. Remain seems to be winning the phone polls, Leave the online polls and nobody seems to very confident about predicting the winner. I guess much will depend on who actually turns up to vote on the day.

[roscoe]

I'm going to Amsterdam on Monday for a few days. If Leave wins I'm claiming asylum.

[Tim Simmons]

Originally Posted by Izzy Eviel

One side is peddling facts and evidence, and the other is peddling patriotic bullshit.

I've never heard of something so awful

[fr79]

As someone who is going out to vote later I cant believe how close they are saying it is. This really surprises me. Im all for staying. I have no problem with immigration, I have a problem that people are allowed into the county with criminal recods. IMO that is an issue. I look at the politicians who are for leaving and just wouldnt want them leading the UK. The others arent great but come on.

Just voted. It'll be down to the wire and dependent on voter turnout. The majority of people in England and older people will vote Leave. If the youth get out and vote they'll overwhelmingly want to Remain. Will be keeping an eye on price of Sterling at 10pm GMT as banks have commissioned exit polls.

Here in Northern Ireland most people will vote Remain but many extreme Unionists will vote Leave in an effort to strengthen links with GB. Perhaps the re-installation of a border here if Brexit. Strangely some of the fanatical Republicans here are voting Leave because they think it will force a border poll resulting in a United Ireland. Thats utter fantasy in my opinion.

The mood here is very sour indeed. Turned very much into a right wing shitstorm really. I'd entertain conversations about Lexit for sure but it's pipe dream stuff. Fingers crossed we'll remain.

[Izzy Eviel]

Keep your eye on the twitter account @Britainelects - they have spreadsheets full of opinion data, and all the results by region as they appear. Hopefully the person updating it won't get bored and fall asleep like last time

[Sydneyfan]

Farage seems to have conceded defeat already. That was quick.

[Sydneyfan]

hee

[Sydneyfan]

Remain down to 71% on Betfair, were over 90% only an hour ago. Punters seem to be getting a little nervous. Still, a long way to go yet.

[Sydneyfan]

uh oh


From Chris Hanretty's blog right now:

02:08 Fourth forecast update
This is a big update, and I'm conscious that I may have made a terrible mistake somewhere in estimating differential turnout, but here goes:
Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0.03
(33 of 382 areas reporting.)
Predicted vote share for Remain: 47.5 percent.
(90% prediction interval: 45.5 to 49.6 percent)

So cutting through the blargh, I think that means he's saying Brexit is 97% probable on current projections.


https://twitter.com/chrishanretty?lang=en


I don't know much about Chris Hanretty, just that his figures are being tossed around on a lot of news and betting sites right now.

[Sydneyfan]

Well, looks like this is over bar the shouting and Britain has voted to leave the EU. What this means for the long term future of the economy and the immediate future of David Cameron remains to be seen.

Commiserations to the Brits here who supported the Remain campaign. As an Aussie, I followed the campaign out of interest, knowing either result was not going to have much impact on me personally. That's not the case for you guys, and I hope Britain makes this new transition as painlessly as possible.

[Izzy Eviel]

We've voted to commit economic suicide and usher in a new era of far right politics.

Expect the far right to increase in the UK and across Europe. Remember what happened last time that happened.

[Izzy Eviel]

Originally Posted by Sydneyfan

Well, looks like this is over bar the shouting and Britain has voted to leave the EU. What this means for the long term future of the economy and the immediate future of David Cameron remains to be seen.

Commiserations to the Brits here who supported the Remain campaign. As an Aussie, I followed the campaign out of interest, knowing either result was not going to have much impact on me personally. That's not the case for you guys, and I hope Britain makes this new transition as painlessly as possible.

The markets have answered that. They're all crashing.

[ishellmay]

Whyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

[La Cienega]

Between this and the Supreme Court here in the U.S. splitting on U.S. v. Texas and therefore upholding (in 9 fucking words) the injunction against Obama's immigration executive action, it's been a big day for xenophobia in the western hemisphere. I feel very sad about the state of the world lately.

[Izzy Eviel]

The UK economy has lost £346 billion in a few hours. Thats 40 years of EU contributions. Oh & Nigel has just said the 350million we save a week won't actually go to the NHS (As they swore would happen)