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Old 08-06-2015, 08:13 PM   #1
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UK Labour leadership race

Interesting times in the UK.......Labour's election defeat appears to have pushed some members of the party to the hard left. Labour will hold a ballot for a new leader in September and at the moment the frontrunner seems to be Jeremy Corbyn. He's an old-school socialist with an agenda that includes re-nationalizing the railways, free tuition, higher taxes for the rich etc. More controversially however, he's got a long history of referring to groups like Hamas as "friends", and most recently has refused to condemn the IRA for civilian deaths.

Even if he loses the leadership vote, it's possible that the successful candidate will have to move somewhat to the left in an effort to attract back some Corbyn's supporters.

Some background here -

http://www.politico.eu/article/labour-hamas-london-ira/


And for balance; a pro-Corbyn op ed by (I assume) the Brian Eno:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...our-leadership
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Old 08-07-2015, 07:46 AM   #2
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Re: 2015 U.K. Election

Labour has a real problem - Milliband (slightly left of centre) was (successfully) painted as a borderline Communist by the press. The problem is they'll get wiped out in England if they elect Corbyn but they'll continue to get flogged by the SNP in Scotland if they pick another pro-austerity automaton (which all of the other candidates are).

It's also been said that hundreds of right-wingers are signing up to the Labour Party & affiliated Trade Unions purely in order to vote for Corbyn & screw the party. Hardly necessary since Labour are doing such a good job all by themselves...
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Old 08-07-2015, 05:09 PM   #3
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Re: 2015 U.K. Election

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It's also been said that hundreds of right-wingers are signing up to the Labour Party & affiliated Trade Unions purely in order to vote for Corbyn & screw the party. Hardly necessary since Labour are doing such a good job all by themselves...
Ha, well my first thought after reading about Corbyn was that the Tories must love him....so I'm not surprised. I imagine his views play well amongst uni students and dusty old Marxists still mourning the collapse of the Soviet Union, but I can't see them being embraced by the masses.

Do you think the Labour Party itself could split if he was elected leader?
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Old 08-08-2015, 05:51 AM   #4
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Re: 2015 U.K. Election

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Ha, well my first thought after reading about Corbyn was that the Tories must love him....so I'm not surprised. I imagine his views play well amongst uni students and dusty old Marxists still mourning the collapse of the Soviet Union, but I can't see them being embraced by the masses.

Do you think the Labour Party itself could split if he was elected leader?
Haven't been following events too closely but yeah, there have been rumblings that the Blairite/centrist MPs might split from the party if Corbyn is elected. 1983 SDP deja vu with Corbyn as the new Michael Foot.

The problem for Labour is that it's not just young crazies & old Marxists that are supporting Corbyn - there seems to be genuine grassroots support for him, particularly amongst the Trade Unions who have a large bloc of votes in the leadership election. Whether that translates into nationwide election-winning popularity is entirely another matter...
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Old 08-09-2015, 06:35 PM   #5
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Re: 2015 U.K. Election

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Haven't been following events too closely but yeah, there have been rumblings that the Blairite/centrist MPs might split from the party if Corbyn is elected. 1983 SDP deja vu with Corbyn as the new Michael Foot.

The problem for Labour is that it's not just young crazies & old Marxists that are supporting Corbyn - there seems to be genuine grassroots support for him, particularly amongst the Trade Unions who have a large bloc of votes in the leadership election. Whether that translates into nationwide election-winning popularity is entirely another matter...
I see, good point. If the unions there are anything like the ones here, they are probably struggling to remain relevant. I can see why Corbyn would be a very attractive option for them, particularly as the other leadership choices seem to be pretty much from the Tony Blair school of thought. As you say though, they are risking strengthening the Tory grip on government to their own obvious detriment.
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Old 08-09-2015, 08:41 PM   #6
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Re: 2015 U.K. Election

Corbyn is like the British Donald Trump - very popular core support, but even the so called left wing media are against him. The majority right wing of the Labour party and the press are all calling him out of touch and that his policies are not popular - turns they are. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-10407148.html

Don't believe the hype that the British public wants austerity - the two parties who made the most anti-austerity noises gained 2 million votes (SNP & Green) Sadly for us, the Labour party is led by red Tories who agree with the blue ones. The end result for us the public is that the Tories are currently a shoe-in for 2020. If Corbyn wins, he'll be slaughtered by the press and if the others win they won't offer anything different to the Tories.

Labour believes it can win by taking voters from the Tories - Corbyn believes he can win by tapping into the population that didn't vote. Judging by the scenes of a recent rally he spoke at, he may be right. There was more people outside than in the venue, which meant he had to address them from the back of a fire truck. Don't think I've ever seen anything like this in English politics before.
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Old 08-09-2015, 10:05 PM   #7
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Re: 2015 U.K. Election

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Originally Posted by Izzy Eviel View Post
Corbyn is like the British Donald Trump - very popular core support, but even the so called left wing media are against him. The majority right wing of the Labour party and the press are all calling him out of touch and that his policies are not popular - turns they are. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-10407148.html

Don't believe the hype that the British public wants austerity - the two parties who made the most anti-austerity noises gained 2 million votes (SNP & Green) Sadly for us, the Labour party is led by red Tories who agree with the blue ones. The end result for us the public is that the Tories are currently a shoe-in for 2020. If Corbyn wins, he'll be slaughtered by the press and if the others win they won't offer anything different to the Tories.

Labour believes it can win by taking voters from the Tories - Corbyn believes he can win by tapping into the population that didn't vote. Judging by the scenes of a recent rally he spoke at, he may be right. There was more people outside than in the venue, which meant he had to address them from the back of a fire truck. Don't think I've ever seen anything like this in English politics before.

Interesting....thanks. There does seem to be rise in support for the "outsider" politician at the moment.....as you say, Trump (and to a slightly lesser extent Sanders) in the US, and Corbyn in the UK.
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Old 08-10-2015, 02:54 PM   #8
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Re: 2015 U.K. Election



How to make you & your party look stupid. Agree with the government and attack anyone who offers something different without offering anything yourself.
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Old 08-10-2015, 10:19 PM   #9
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Re: 2015 U.K. Election

Probably should be a bit wary of polls after the recent election, but anyhow....


Quote:
Jeremy Corbyn will win the Labour leadership contest in a first-round landslide victory with 53 per cent, according to a new poll from YouGov.

Corbyn has been polling way ahead of his competition for weeks, but this result gives him the largest lead so far, putting him 32 points ahead of Andy Burnham, who came in second place.

The poll revealed that Yvette Cooper would get 18 per cent of the vote, and Liz Kendall would trail with only eight per cent.

The polls may seem to good to be true, but as well as releasing such surprising figures, YouGov President Peter Kellner has said he would be "astonished" if Corbyn did not win the leadership race, in an article for The Times.

The Labour leadership election is run on the alternative vote system, meaning voters can list candidates in order of their preference. Votes are counted in rounds, with the least popular candidate being eliminated each time and the second, third and fourth preference votes being distributed until one candidate gets over 50 per cent and wins.

However, Corbyn's figure of 53 per cent would put him in first place straight away, in a landslide victory.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-10449236.html
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Old 08-11-2015, 06:20 AM   #10
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Re: 2015 U.K. Election

Just follow the tweets on @medialens for more info on the smear campaign against Corbyn.

Labour are just publicly humiliating themselves. Compare the Labour leadership process to that of the Liberals. Later was done quickly & efficiently and no sign of hostility. Although probably easier due to the fact we only have 8 MPs
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Old 08-14-2015, 08:38 AM   #11
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Re: 2015 U.K. Election

If one advert could ever sum up New Labour it is this one. #fail
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Old 09-10-2015, 05:50 PM   #12
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Re: 2015 U.K. Election

Voting has closed in the Labour leadership elections. Corbyn widely expected to win. Things are about to get "colourful" in the British media methinks.
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Old 09-10-2015, 08:00 PM   #13
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Re: UK Labour leadership race

Great site for followers of UK politics (&American also)

http://www.politicalbetting.com/
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Old 09-10-2015, 08:06 PM   #14
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Re: UK Labour leadership race

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Great site for followers of UK politics (&American also)

http://www.politicalbetting.com/
Wowsers........Ladbrokes predicting Corbyn at 53.3% on first preferences. Oof. Not even really a contest.
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Old 09-11-2015, 07:19 AM   #15
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Re: UK Labour leadership race

Man, right-wing newspaper editors must be salivating right now.

Wonder what terribly amusing nickname they'll come up with. Ten bucks on 'Comrade Corbyn'.
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Old 09-13-2015, 05:56 PM   #16
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Re: UK Labour leadership race

And so it begins......

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Old 09-15-2015, 03:51 AM   #17
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Re: UK Labour leadership race

Quote:
Jeremy Corbyn creates new dedicated 'Minister for Mental Health' in his shadow cabinet

Jeremy Corbyn has appointed a shadow “Minister for Mental Health” to his shadow cabinet, Labour has announced.

Luciana Berger will directly work on mental health issues and consider how they can best be addressed by the NHS and prioritised by a Labour government.

The post, which is Cabinet-level, is a new creation of Mr Corbyn’s shadow administration and has no identical counterpart in the Conservative government.

“We have delivered a unifying, dynamic, inclusive new Shadow Cabinet which for the first time ever has a majority of women,” Mr Corbyn said in a statement.

“I am delighted that we have established a Shadow Cabinet position for mental health which is a matter I have long been interested in.”

The Government currently rolls responsibility for mental health into a junior care minister position. The new role will report to the Shadow Health Secretary at the Department of Health.

Mr Corbyn spent his first day as leader attending a fundraiser organised by his local NHS mental health trust. He was criticised in the press for attending the event in lieu of a planned appearing on BBC One’s The Andrew Marr Show.

In a speech in Parliament in February this year Mr Corbyn explained his attitude to mental health and why he thought the subject was so important.

“All of us can go through depression; all of us can go through those experiences. Every single one of us in this Chamber knows people who have gone through it, and has visited people who have been in institutions and have fully recovered and gone back to work and continued their normal life,” he said.

“I dream of the day when this country becomes as accepting of these problems as some Scandinavian countries are, where one Prime Minister was given six months off in order to recover from depression, rather than being hounded out of office as would have happened on so many other occasions.”

Mr Corbyn said at the time that he believed access to “timely and appropriate” treatment was the biggest issue for mental healthcare, alongside the recognition of mental disabilities by the Department for Work and Pensions.

“I have had far too many anecdotal reports from constituents and others who go for a Department for Work and Pensions availability for work test,” he said.
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Old 09-16-2015, 07:09 AM   #18
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Re: UK Labour leadership race

The filthy communist refused to sing the national anthem. What the hell is this world coming to...

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...ritain-service
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Old 09-16-2015, 07:42 AM   #19
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Re: UK Labour leadership race

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The filthy communist refused to sing the national anthem. What the hell is this world coming to...

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...ritain-service
Sort of feels akin to going on about what hats were worn at the Royal Wedding.
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Old 09-16-2015, 02:01 PM   #20
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Re: UK Labour leadership race

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Sort of feels akin to going on about what hats were worn at the Royal Wedding.
Yeah. 'God Save The Queen' is a fucking dirge, anyway. Kudos to Jez. And if he had sung it they would have just labelled him a hypocrite.
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Old 09-16-2015, 09:40 PM   #21
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Re: UK Labour leadership race

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And if he had sung it they would have just labelled him a hypocrite.
Yep, and that's going to be the crux of the problem for Corbyn I reckon. The anthem/tie stuff is small potatoes, but it illustrates the problems he may have between remaining true to his ideals (and keeping his followers happy) and learning to be a bit more pragmatic and expanding his appeal to the middle ground.
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Old 09-24-2015, 04:39 AM   #22
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Re: UK Labour leadership race

It's a long while before he has to face a general election (if he lasts that long), but this is the current problem facing Corbyn.


Spoiler:
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Old 09-24-2015, 05:20 AM   #23
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Re: UK Labour leadership race

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It's a long while before he has to face a general election (if he lasts that long), but this is the current problem facing Corbyn.


Spoiler:
How many were polled?
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Old 09-24-2015, 06:33 AM   #24
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Re: UK Labour leadership race

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How many were polled?
That's a very good question, and the answer is, I dunno. I got the data from here:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/ind...ds-to-attract/

The comments are from election analyst Mike Smithson

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

The bookies are usually pretty good at predicting outcomes, but you're right to question the sample size. It matters a great deal.
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Old 09-24-2015, 01:27 PM   #25
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Re: UK Labour leadership race

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Originally Posted by Sydneyfan View Post
That's a very good question, and the answer is, I dunno. I got the data from here:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/ind...ds-to-attract/

The comments are from election analyst Mike Smithson

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

The bookies are usually pretty good at predicting outcomes, but you're right to question the sample size. It matters a great deal.
Force of habit, it's the first question I ask whenever someone gives me poll stats. A friend of mine told me a coffee chain here was called out because they used survey numbers as the basis for a massive ad campaign (i.e. "this many people prefer us to Starbucks!"). Turns out they only surveyed like a 150 people.
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